Experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) say that political unrest has severely affected economic activity. "Growth for the fiscal year 2019 is expected to be around -1.2%, while inflation is estimated at more than 20% by the end of September, fueling poverty and insecurity and depriving the state of the means to 'invest and support the activity'.
After an evaluation mission to Haiti, IMF experts have argued that the "medium-term projections do not provide for major reforms, it is unrealistic to consider at this stage, they rely instead on stabilization the political situation and GDP during the year 2020 with a very weak recovery of growth around 0.9% in 2021. In this context, it would be difficult to envisage a much lower inflation rate. 20% per year for the next two years and potential growth is estimated at 1.5% in the longer term. "
According to the IMF, the continuation of the current political crisis would be devastating for the country with more severe medium-term consequences due to the loss of physical and human capital. On the other hand, ending the crisis in the short term could lead to a rebound in economic activity. The appointment of a determined Government to undertake reforms and the resumption of support from the international community would ease the budgetary constraint. This would lead to an increase in public spending, especially investment, along with a reduction in central bank financing, thus facilitating a drop in inflation and an increase in growth in the short, medium and long term. term. the immediate priority must be the stabilization of the economic situation ".
In addition, the IMF stresses that the "fight against corruption is another short-term priority. The Anti-Corruption Unit must have its legal and financial means strengthened to fully carry out its mission." The Steering Committee provided for in the Strategy The 2009 National Anti-Corruption Strategy must be set up with the integration of independent representatives of civil society and must participate in the preparation of the new anti-corruption strategy.